Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.659654 8.803973 10.039048 11.468452 13.074371 14.820002 16.858179
2026-02-01 6.016800 7.568317 9.375257 11.623987 14.335444 17.486656 21.412516
2026-02-08 5.063383 6.756111 8.827126 11.526671 14.929396 19.050962 24.392905
2026-02-15 4.329987 6.096449 8.356170 11.426140 15.450441 20.504213 27.282432
2026-02-22 3.834709 5.657302 8.080307 11.490636 16.111834 22.093638 30.348089
2026-03-01 3.517250 5.411708 8.018464 11.804299 17.086028 24.105737 34.033942
2026-03-08 3.099308 4.970964 7.634980 11.624072 17.348425 25.151653 36.450298
2026-03-15 2.655321 4.439979 7.067296 11.122138 17.103898 25.461726 37.841641
2026-03-22 2.487065 4.307107 7.063306 11.425306 18.008710 27.395268 41.559224
2026-03-29 2.318012 4.153364 7.009647 11.640358 18.783027 29.164300 45.105732
2026-04-05 2.101583 3.899315 6.776046 11.555280 19.090351 30.254500 47.699776
2026-04-12 1.898651 3.646306 6.520470 11.410707 19.286437 31.173755 50.062882
2026-04-19 1.740190 3.457668 6.359167 11.412242 19.719860 32.485605 53.099857
2026-04-26 1.614419 3.314541 6.261624 11.509122 20.306464 34.054569 56.592863
2026-05-03 1.473503 3.128039 6.072096 11.432843 20.597931 35.164023 59.404735
2026-05-10 1.342625 2.946424 5.874950 11.325994 20.825680 36.172904 62.087946
2026-05-17 1.250141 2.829380 5.782816 11.392476 21.341283 37.655495 65.569239
2026-05-24 1.198715 2.789052 5.827401 11.702885 22.285688 39.868808 70.303972
2026-05-31 1.089334 2.618034 5.612260 11.524336 22.365140 40.650913 72.725175
2026-06-07 0.953543 2.375930 5.239897 11.026106 21.846037 40.399649 73.416481
2026-06-14 0.918791 2.349968 5.289531 11.327005 22.775669 42.638416 78.347662
2026-06-21 0.876985 2.303835 5.294527 11.540414 23.552685 44.640177 82.941933
2026-06-28 0.809035 2.190488 5.152779 11.455985 23.770667 45.673524 85.910185